Threat of spring flooding climbs for RRV

The latest outlook released today (Thursday) by the National Weather Service says the risk of flooding in the Red River Valley has increased in recent weeks.

There is a high risk of major flooding at Fargo/Moorhead…Oslo…and Pembina on the Red River.  There is a medium risk – 35 to 65 percent chance – of major flooding at Grand Forks/East Grand Forks and Drayton.

While lingering drought conditions leaves room for snowmelt infiltration that only happens if the thaw is gentle.  In additional snowpack conditions are above long-term averages and frost depths are deeper than normal.

The 50-50 crest outlook for Grand Forks and East Grand Forks is estimated at 45.8 feet – up better than a foot from the February 10th report.

Flood stage is 28 feet.

…Red River Long-Range Probabilistic Outlook by River Stage…

Valid from February 28, 2022  to May 29, 2022

LOCATION                95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%    05%

——–            —— —— —— —— —— —— ——

WAHPETON             12.2   12.3   12.9   14.0   15.3   16.4   16.9

HICKSON                  28.0   28.3   30.3   33.0   34.0   35.7   36.3

FARGO                      27.9   30.3   31.9   33.7   35.4   37.9   38.5

HALSTAD                  29.2   30.5   32.8   36.0   38.2   39.1   39.6

GRAND FORKS        41.9   42.5   43.8   45.8   47.7   50.3   52.0

OSLO                         35.3   35.6   36.2   37.0   37.8   38.8   39.5

DRAYTON                 40.1   40.3   40.7   41.7   42.8   43.4   44.3

PEMBINA                 47.8   48.7   49.8   51.1   52.2   53.1   53.7